Which is most likely to happen in the next 5 years, that a 2nd UN or a 2nd EU is formed?

Question

UN2: So that no country is immune from UN-related international law, it might happen that the biggest 100 countries apart from US Chn Fr UK & Rus form a 2nd UN in which no country is able to veto things & hence matters of injustice can be better addressed.
EU2: Countries become tired of being coerced into a general system of rules telling them what they must do & what they can't do, and so some of the countries form a breakaway EU2, in which there is only a menu of initiatives, and each country simply opts in to and out of any initiatve it likes / doesn't at the time & it can change/opt back in/out whenever it wants to. This EU2 might grow to have 40, 70, maybe all the countries of the world in it, whereas the current EU is reserved for only those who want to go forward and form a kind of superstate together.
Which of these 2 is more likely to happen? & which would you give more support to?

The Patriot · Accepted Answer

EU2.

Why would a nation join an organistation like the UN2 you suggest when it can have power over it?

Anseo · Answer

Never mind 5 years, neither of these will happen for the foreseeable future (i cant say its impossible though!)

In regards to the UN, well i honestly don't know where to begin to say that that is not ever going to happen, as im guessing you probably believe that too.

However, in regards to a EU2, you say it will be an alternative EU where states can opt in or out of initiatives... but that is what the current EU is, states opt in and out of what they choose, example of course is the UK opting out of the Euro-zone currency, so what would be the point of the a second EU then? I don't get how it would come about. And why do you refer to the EU as a form of 'they'? The EU is 'us'. Member states make up the EU, we elect our politicians to our own respective parliaments, who in turn make up the European Council, and we also directly elect MEPs. So we, the people, you and me, control the EU and decide on its future, not a mythical 'they'.

However, on a point of interest. I am irish and after we rejected the first Lisbon Treaty (which was down to domestic factors (fascists, extreme catholic conservatives, racist, and basically both ends of the far far extreme right and left of irish society), and not European factors; we where thinking, well what do we do know? Because the rest of the EU was going to ratify the treaty so we didn't know what was going to happen to us. There was talk at the time, suggestions would be the best word to use, that ireland (on its own, or with the UK and possible other EU pessimistic states) could form a second tier EU. Where the rest would move forward under Lisbon, and we would be left behind with the old dysfunctional rules and regulations.

If this was to occur, it would basically mean ireland and the UK would be together in some form of their own mini Union. When irish people realized this, the thought of being in our own little union (of any shape or form) with just Britain, was laughable, as it tool us 800 years of fighting to rid our self's of British influence and oppression. So thank good, the masses got a wake up call and that is why on Lisbon II, there was massive support for it at the polls (about 66% i think it was)

So in a hypothetical world, i think an EU2 is not going to happen, but a second tier EU... maybe?

Which is most likely to happen in the next 5 years, that a 2nd UN or a 2nd EU is formed?

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