What are the chances the Dow will fall below 10,000?

It will not fall below 10,000. Mark my word. Write me in a year

I don't think it will get below 10,000, although it may get close. If it gets there it just might stay there and consolidate between 10,000 and 12,000 for a while.

Of course I am hoping it is carving out the bottom of a new channel from 11,500 - 13,500 before making 13,000 the next support.

If you look at a weekly 12-year chart, the last 4 times the slow stochastics were at these levels, the Dow recovered between 500 - 2,000 points over the next few months. Of course the stochastics are not yet turning back up like they were the last 4 times ...so give it a few weeks and see how it reacts down here.

Things could be a little toppy but it's still printing higher highs and there is still trend support around 11,500. The next level down is very strong support in the 10,000 area. If broken, the 7,300 area has good support, but seems very unlikely to be hit.

Money is being redistributed throughout the world economy, it needs to settle in and find it's way, huge changes are afoot.

A forecast at that point is really hard to do. In the past a gloomy situation like the one the us currently has would have spelled doom for global growth, however it remains yet to be seen how much consumption the foreign markets can muster. I must say Iam pesimistic about it though, if the dow is to hit 10000 it will well before summer.

The stock market is down right now. World markets are down in general. I suggest that you follow the market and the sectors more closely, day by day. One good resource is http://www.federalreserve.ws/ which contains a lot of information about markets, economics, and finance.

At the rate it is dropping, we might hit that number by summer...